State of the Patriots: Safety

Players on the Roster:

SS Sergio Brown
SS Pat Chung
FS Bret Lockett
FS Brandon Meriweather
FS James Sanders
FS Ross Ventrone

Free Agents:

SS Brandon McGowan
SS Jarrad Page
SS Josh Barrett (RFA)

At first glance, it appears that the Patriots are set in terms of depth in the safety position. All three of the usual starters, Chung, Meriweather and Sanders, remain on the roster and while the next player up is a free agent (Page), Sergio Brown showed a lot of promise early in the season. McGowan doesn't really have a spot on the roster since Chung has effectively replaced him on the roster- and linebacker Gary Guyton has taken over the coverage duty of tight ends and has done an excellent job.

After further examination, however, the Patriots may look at investing in a free safety in the draft.

New England Patriots 2011 Draft Top 50 Big Board

Even though the Patriots are still in the playoffs, I can't help but look towards the draft, where the Patriots own six of the first 96 selections, and three in the first 33. The Patriots have needs at some positions (offensive line, defensive line, outside linebacker, running back) and are well off at other positions (inside linebacker, cornerback, quarterback), which affects which players I place on my draft board. Here's my list of draft needs:

1. Defensive End - The prototypical Patriots DE is over 6-3 and weighs no less than 295 lbs, in order to have the mass to watch two gaps.
2. Offensive Guard - The Patriots have no idea at the current strength of their guard position. Logan Mankins could walk and that leaves Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell as the two guards on the roster; an upgrade is needed. They must be between 6-2 and 6-4 so they have the size, but they don't block Brady's throwing motion, and be between 290-315 lbs.
3. Offensive Tackle - Matt Light's contract is up, but the Patriots might sign him to a short term deal, much like the deal they gave guard Stephen Neal. Nick Kaczur will be returning from injury, but there's absolutely room for improvement. They must be 6-4 or taller and weigh between 305-320 lbs.
4. Outside Linebacker - The Patriots may have found a gem in Eric Moore, but they could always have room for a dominant pass rusher. Jermaine Cunningham has promise, Rob Ninkovich is a quality cover outside linebacker, and Tully Banta-Cain can generate pressure. Still, none of these players are dominant and a game changing OLB could make the defense even stronger. They must be between 6-2 and 6-5 and weigh between 250-270 lbs.
5. Center - Dan Koppen is still the field general and he's gotten better as the year's grown older, but it's unknown how long he can remain in a Patriots uniform. A center of the future could be drafted in the middle rounds (unlike Ted Larsen who was drafted at the end of the 2010 Draft) and they could be ready to take Koppen's spot in a couple years. They must be 6-2 to 6-4 and weigh between 290 and 310 lbs.

The least important positions are quarterback and inside linebacker where the Patriots have no room on their roster for additional players. Let's take a look at the Big Board after the jump!

Rating the 2011 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects

A week ago, I made a post about a metric I believed determined the NFL readiness of a NCAA prospect. In the comment section, OBrienSchofieldismyHero asked if I could rate some of the other potential NFL prospects. In addition to rating his lovechild Scott Tolzien, I decided to rate many of the potential draftees in the 2011 NFL Draft. Most of the players are seniors because of how few juniors have declared for the NFL Draft, but I decided to include the top Juniors. Also, even though Andrew Luck stated that he would return to Stanford, I decided to rate him as well. A lot of the scores are different from the original piece because I’ve standardized the scoring in order to keep every player on a similar scale. It has to be said that the scoring favors those players with multiple years of starting experience because that’s one of the factors of these scores- the more NCAA experience, the better chance of NFL success.

The scores do not mean that a player is a better player. It just is an indicator of how NFL ready they are. The greater the number, the less of a chance for a bust. Here’s the scoring table:

95+: Immediate NFL Star
90+: Immediate NFL Starter
85+: High Level Competitor for NFL Starter
80+: Low Level Competitor for NFL Starter
75+: Immediate NFL Back-Up
70+: High Level Competitor for NFL Back-Up
65+: Low Level Competitor for NFL Back-Up
60+: 3rd Quarterback and Roster Bubble Player
60-: Training Camp Body

Now when you look at the scores, keep in mind that the score represents where the player is at this current point in time. Andrew Luck, if drafted, would have been an NFL Starter, but I believe he would have produced at the level of an NFL Back-Up. That is not because Andrew Luck is not an NFL Starter, but because he hasn’t developed enough as a quarterback to immediately step into the NFL and produce at a high level.