Teams Looking for Head Coaches: Good Luck!

It's the time of the year when all of the hapless teams start looking for new head coaching candidates. The question at hand is: what coach will best lead my team to a Super Bowl victory? Well, let's try and figure out if a pattern exists amongst successful coaches.

Here's a list of coaches that have made multiple playoff trips in the past 5 seasons:

Bill Belichick
Jim Caldwell
Brad Childress
Tom Coughlin
Jeff Fisher
John Harbaugh
Mike Holmgren
Mike McCarthy
Sean Payton
Wade Phillips
Andy Reid
Rex Ryan
Lovie Smith
Mike Smith
Mike Tomlin
Norv Turner
Ken Whisenhunt

What can we learn from looking at these coaches? A fair amount.

Now that we have a list of coaches, let's take a look at their respective backgrounds.

Bill Belichick - Defense, 25 years before Patriots HC
Jim Caldwell - Offense, 8 years before Colts HC
Brad Childress - Offense, 6 years before Vikings HC
Tom Coughlin - Offense, 18 years before Giants HC
Jeff Fisher - Defense, 9 years before Titans HC
John Harbaugh - Defense, 10 years before Ravens HC
Mike Holmgren - Offense, 6 years before Packers HC, 13 years before Seahawks HC
Mike McCarthy - Offense, 13 years before Packers HC
Sean Payton - Offense, 9 years before Saints HC
Wade Phillips - Defense, 31 years before Cowboys HC
Andy Reid - Offense, 7 years before Eagles HC
Rex Ryan - Defense, 10 years before Jets HC
Lovie Smith - Defense, 8 years before Bears HC
Mike Smith - Defense, 9 years before Falcons HC
Mike Tomlin - Defense, 6 years before Steelers HC
Norv Turner - Offense, 22 years before Chargers HC
Ken Whisenhunt - Offense, 10 years before Cardinals HC

The tallies: 17 Coaches, 8 with Defensive backgrounds, 9 with Offensive backgrounds.

Now which of these coaches have significant winning records (over 60% victories) over their span as head coach?

*$Bill Belichick, Defense - .716 with Patriots (11 seasons)
Jim Caldwell, Offense - .750 with Colts (2 seasons)
*John Harbaugh, Defense - .667 with Ravens (2 seasons)
*Mike McCarthy, Offense - .600 with Packers (5 seasons)
$Sean Payton, Offense - .613 with Saints (5 seasons)
Wade Phillips, Defense - .607 with Cowboys (4 seasons)
Andy Reid, Offense - .617 with Eagles (12 seasons)
*Rex Ryan, Defense - .625 with Jets (2 seasons)
*Mike Smith, Defense - .689 with Falcons (3 seasons)
*$Mike Tomlin, Defense - .667 with Steelers (4 seasons)
Norv Turner, Offense - .641 with Chargers (4 seasons)

The tallies: 11 remaining Coaches, 6 with Defensive backgrounds, 5 with Offensive backgrounds. However, if 2 seasons is not enough of a time to grade a coach, then there are 8 Coaches with 3+ seasons, 4 with Defensive backgrounds and 4 with Offensive backgrounds. An extremely even split. The starred coaches are the ones remaining in this season's playoffs (6 Coaches, 5 with Defensive backgrounds, 1 with Offensive background). The dollar signed coaches have won Super Bowls (3 Coaches, 2 with Defensive backgrounds, 1 with Offensive background).

So can we find anything in common amongst these coaches? It seems like there's a pretty even split, over the course of 5 seasons, between Defensive and Offensive minded coaches and over the regular season there's the same split. Each of the 11 coaches listed has either guided a team to a #1 seed, or has played in the Conference Championship Game. The only thing these coaches have in common on their resumes? They didn't make the immediate leap from college football.

So for those teams looking for head coaches, here are some tips:

1. Don't get a college coach. Take a coordinator who has experience (preferably 8+ years) in the NFL.
2. Go for maturity. The stoic coaches (Tomlin, Belichick, Dungy) all have success, while the coaches that wear their emotions on their sleeves seem to stumble at important times.
3. Get a coach opposite of the talent on the team. If the team has an elite quarterback, get a defensive minded coach because the talent can support the team. If the team has tremendous defensive talent, get an offensive coach. A smart coach will make average players great.

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 Here are some bonus facts:
Out of the remaining coaches in the 2010-11 playoffs, only one coach has an offensive background (Mike McCarthy) and he beat another offensive minded coach in the first round (Andy Reid).

All four coaches eliminated had an offensive background (Jim Caldwell, Todd Haley, Sean Payton, Andy Reid).

The top four AFC teams and the top two NFC teams have defensive minded coaches (Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Rex Ryan, Mike Smith and Lovie Smith. Pete Carroll came from the college ranks with a defensive background, but it's hard to say the Seahawks are a top team, despite having a higher seed than the offensive based Packers.

The top three remaining teams (Patriots, Falcons, Steelers) all have elite quarterbacks to balance out the defensive mind of the head coach.

So if you're a team looking for a head coach, good luck. Just make a wise choice.